Purdue Prediction

After easily disposing of the Tyrone Willingham-led-Washington Huskies, the Irish face a difficult test against the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette. While on paper, Notre Dame should win this game, I see the Irish losing this game. I hope I'm horribly wrong about this and I'm eating a nice pile of crow on Sunday. Let's take a look at the matchups.

ND Passing vs. Purdue Pass Defense
Notre Dame has the 17th ranked passing offense in the country and what makes the Irish pass offense so dangerous is that Brady has a number of dangerous options to throw to: Samardzija, Fasano, Shelton, Stovall and Walker. I think in order to slow down the Irish passing game you need a great pass rush. Purdue does not have a great pass rush, and I would not be surprised if Brady Quinn throws the ball fifty times on Saturday.
Advantage: Notre Dame

ND Rushing vs. Purdue Rushing Defense
Part of the reason Brady Quinn could throw fifty times is that the Irish will struggle to run the football. Yes, Minnesota did run for over 300 yards last week, but Laurence Maroney is probably the 2nd or 3rd best running back in the country. While Darius Walker is a fine running back, he is no Laurence Maroney. Notre Dame notoriously struggles to run the football against Purdue (even Julius Jones had a miserable game against them a few years ago), and I expect more of the same.
Advantage: Purdue

Purdue Passing vs. Notre Dame Pass Defense
Last week, Notre Dame gave up 400 yard passing to a bad football team, but was able to make up for the pass defensive lapses by forcing turnovers in the red zone. Purdue has more talented receivers than Washington and an experienced quarterback in Brandon Kirsh, who will not make some of the same silly mistakes that Isaiah Stanback made last week. Defensive Coordinator Rick Minter will probably have a few tricks up his sleeve to mask the poor pass defense, which is currently ranked 105th in the country, so Kirsh may not have a Drew Stanton-esque game, but he should still throw for about 300 yards.
Advantage: Purdue

Purdue Rushing vs. Notre Dame Rushing Defense
The strength of the Notre Dame defense is in the linebacker core, so it is no coincidence that Notre Dame has one of the top rush stopping defenses in the country (32nd to be exact). Purdue has become a more balance team offensively this season, as they have two solid running backs in Jerod Void and Kory Sheets and they have a mobile quarterback in Brandon Kirsh. While Purdue does have a good running game, Notre Dame's rushing defense is just too good for Purdue to be able to run the football effectively. Tiller has been known to call a lot of running plays against Notre Dame, and if he decides to run the ball more than 30 times on Saturday, Notre Dame will win this game.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Special Teams
Notre Dame has a very solid punt return man in Tom Zbikowski. They have a solid punter and placekicker in D.J. Fitzpatrick. They also have solid kick coverages. Purdue has no return game to speak of. They also have a kicker who has kicked only one field goal this season and a punter who is averaging less than 38 yards a punt.
Advantage: Notre Dame

Intangibles
This is usually the biggest game for Purdue all season, and they almost always play over their heads in this game. It doesn't hurt either that Purdue is playing at home.
Advantage: Purdue

Prediction
When you add up a poor pass defense, an opposing team that can pass the ball, is playing at home and playing out its mind, it equals a loss. Purdue 31 Notre Dame 28

Weis Gets Another

Weis got his 17th verbal commitment when he got offensive lineman Eric Olsen to verbally commit on Friday. Notre Dame beat out BC, Maryland and Virginia for his services. This is another solid pickup for Weis as I've said before Notre Dame desperately needs some depth on the OL. The spots are filling up quick for the Class of 2010, and its only the end of September. Hopefully Weis can get some more help on the defensive side of the ball in filling out the rest of the Class of 2010.

ND-Washington Wrap-Up

Now that this game is over, hopefully the media can stop talking about Ty's firing and they can focus on ND's play on the field. Let's take a look at the good and the bad from yesterday's game.
The good:

• The offense. Another game, another 500 yard day. Man that last sentence felt good. Notre Dame will likely lose at least 2 or 3 more games this season, but they will exciting to watch all season. Quinn was solid yet again, throwing for over 300 yards. Walker had yet another 100 yard game. Fasano was great as usual. And Jeff Samardzija continues to play out of his mind. If he doesn't have another 150 yards receiving and a touchdown against Purdue I'll be shocked.
• The run defense. Washington was forced to be one-dimensional the entire game as they ran for a paltry 41 yards. The linebackers of Hoyte, Mays and Crum continue to show that they are the strength of the defense.
• Red zone defense. The defense came up with huge turnovers on two separate occasions when Washington was in the red zone. One a forced fumble on the 1 yard line and the other a one-handed interception in the end zone. This game would have been a lot closer if Washington had came away with points in those two drives.

Now to the bad.

• The pass defense. The pass defense was PATHETIC! If you let a bad Washington team throw for over 400 yards just imagine what a good team like USC will do to this defense. Matt Leinart might have 500 yards passing in the first half. The pass defense woes start up front. The last two games the defensive line has failed to consistently generate pressure the quarterback and when that happens that puts undue pressure on the secondary. However, the secondary is far from being faultless for yesterday's performance. Too many times the Washington receivers were just running by the Notre Dame secondary and Washington took advantage of that by completing a lot of deep passes down the field. I expect that more teams will use the vertical passing game to test this suspect secondary the rest of the season.
• Field goal execution. A botched PAT snap and a botched hold on field goal is never acceptable even in game you win handily.
• John Saunders interview at halftime with Tyrone Willingham. To quote my friend Lucas over at Daily Contentions, "[E]very time a commentator or other individual makes this trumped up charge of racism, they set black coaches back years." I couldn't agree more, and I lost quite a bit of respect for Tyrone Willingham, the man, when he seemed to go along with Saunders' accusations of racism.

On to Purdue next Saturday where all Notre Dame fans will be treated to the color commentary of the great Bob Davie. Yippy.

Washington Prediction

Notre Dame is coming off a difficult loss to Michigan State, and the good thing for the Irish is that this week they're playing a team that barely qualifies as a Division I team. Washington doesn't have a lot of offense, as its 73rd in the nation in total offense despite their beat down of the mighty Idaho Vandals. Their defense is just as pathetic, sporting the 78th best run defense in the country and the 60th best pass defense in the country that allowed Air Force, AIR FORCE pass all over them.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, has a very good offense, one that is averaging over 30 points a game, and is 21st in the nation in total offense even though they have not played an Idaho-esque team. And while Notre Dame's pass defense still leaves a lot to be desired, Washington does not have the talent or the coaching to exploit this weakness.

So what do all these numbers mean for Saturday? A game that will be over by halftime. If Notre Dame is not up by at least 3 touchdowns at halftime, I'll be shocked. Remember Notre Dame beat Washington by 35 points last year and that was when Notre Dame had coaches that didn't have a clue. Washington may be better than last year, but it won't be enough to make up for the improvement of Notre Dame's coaching. Both David Wolke and Travis Thomas should see significant playing time in the second half, and it will be yet another rough game for Tyrone Willingham. Notre Dame 49 Washington 17

Sorry Ty it doesn't look too good for your boys Saturday

Huh?

I was watching MTV 2 this morning and they were showing the new Weezer video, "We're All on Drugs", but when it got time for the chorus, Rivers Cuomo wasn't singing the chorus, "We're all on drugs," instead he was singing, "We're all in love." Apparently, you're not allowed to have any kind of drug references on MTV, but it's perfectly okay for MTV to show people getting ridiculous hammered and then having sex with someone they just met at the bar. Yeah that makes sense. On a side note, it takes a lot more than a music video to get someone to do drugs, especially one like Weezer's, which is anything but a pro-drug music video.

They Just Don't Get It

The DC government passed a bill on Tuesday that bans pharmaceutical companies from selling prescription drugs at an "excessive price", which is defined as 30 percent over the comparative price in Germany, Canada, Australia or the United Kingdom. When are local and state governments going to realize that the reason that Germany, Canada, Australia and other countries have such cheap drugs is that their governments subsidizes the costs of the prescription drugs, and this idea that drug companies just like to stick it to Americans because we're such a wealthy country is a myth. Not to mention, this policy if it passes all court challenges (and that seems to like a big if to me), it will actually do nothing to reduce the costs of prescription drugs for citizens in DC. How you ask? DC is unfortnately a pretty small area and almost all of the residents live within a 15 minute car ride of Maryland or Virginia. Thus, what the drug companies will do is stop selling their product in DC pharmacies and sell more of their product in Maryland and Virginia, which does not have price controls on prescription drugs. All this bill does is hurt the DC pharmaceutical businesses and inconvenience many of its residents who will have to make a longer commute to get their needed medications. So way to go DC City Council for passing a bill that will have the exact opposite effect of what you intended to achieve.

MSU Wrap-Up

I finally have some time to have post some quick thoughts on the MSU game. First the bad.

• No tailgating in the Blue Field, south of Edison (the soccer fields). Due to all of the road construction around campus, they have closed the Blue Field, south of Edison for the season, which was my favorite place to tailgate before the game. Notre Dame told all of the people displaced by the Blue Field closing to tailgate at the White Field, north of Douglas, which is basically right next to my parent's house in Naperville, IL.
• Tackling. This was no more evident than on the last play of the game where what should have been a 5 yard gain turned into a touchdown.
• Pass defense. When you give up 327 yards passing and on one play allow the offense to throw a screen pass to a wide receiver and you allow the receiver to run 60 yards down the field without touching him, that's not a good thing.
• Pass rush. Part of the reason Drew Stanton was able to throw for over 300 yards was that he had all day to find an open wide receiver and when your secondary is not that good, that's a bad combination.
• Team Discipline. 12 penalties for 92 yards is completely unacceptable.

Now to the good.

• The offense. The Irish are now averaging over 30 points a game, and I think during the Willingham era, Notre Dame scored over thirty points maybe once or twice. They were able to move the ball at will through out most of the game. And while they were a little too pass wacky at times, I think that's partly a product of the Irish having Darius Walker to run the ball and um um...is James Aldridge on the roster yet? The best part of the strong offensive showing so far this season is that no deficit seems too large. They were down 21 points in the second half and I knew they would come back. I could not say the same thing about this team the last couple of years.
• The crowd. The crowd was absolutely jacked up the whole game. That was probably the loudest I've heard the stadium since the Michigan game in 2002. The efforts of Charlie Weis so far had a lot to do with the increased energy from the crowd.
• Weis' take of the game. When I got a chance to read the post-game stories in the Chicago Tribune I was reminded why I have fallen in love with Weis, as he said afterwards, "Here's what I told them. I told them: 'You don't get any medals for trying.'" How refreshing, a coach who accepts wins and nothing else. You gotta believe that this week of practice is not going to be a lot fun for the players and they are going to be fired up this weekend. Washington is going to be in a whole lot of trouble.

MSU Prediction

Sorry for the lack of posts this week. I had to travel for work, so that has not left me with a lot of free time. I'm off to South Bend tomorrow afternoon to hopefully take in the pep rally and then go out on the town reliving my college glory days. Then I plan on sleeping maybe 4 hours and then tailgating of course. Oh how I love Notre Dame home football weekends, especially now that we're good. Hopefully I'll post a few photos from the weekend early next week.

As for the game, Michigan State has been been talking a lot of trash this week, most prominently from defensive lineman Clifton Ryan, who said the following:

When we were down there in '03, I went looking for Touchdown Jesus. Once I seen it, I realized it wasn't all it was cracked up to be. You hear about a place, you hear about how it gets amped up; it just wasn't like I had expected.

And based on that statement, I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Ryan is not an English major. While not well-spoken, Ryan does have a valid point, Michigan State should be confident coming into this game. They have trounced their two opponents this year (Kent State and Hawaii), and most importantly, they have not lost at Notre Dame Stadium since Lou Holtz was head coach. Sadly I'm not making this up. That being said, Michigan State's recent dominance over Notre Dame ends on Saturday. While Michigan State's offense has been great, their defense remains largely unproven and was flat out bad last year. Both Brady Quinn and Darius Walker should both have big days. In addition, Michigan State has yet to face a defense as talented and as physical as Notre Dame. While Michigan State should be able score some points, they aren't going to put up points and yards anywhere close to what they did in the first two games. The game will be close for a while, but the hard hits of the Notre Dame defense and the precise execution of the Notre Dame offense will wear out Michigan State. Notre Dame pulls away in the second half for a relatively comfortable victory. Notre Dame 45 Michigan State 27

What a Birthday and What a Game!

Yesterday was my 23rd birthday and ND's first win over Michigan in the Big House since 1993 was one of the best birthday gifts I've gotten in a long time. Weis has put the fight back in the Fighting Irish (as evident in that picture above). I'm heading out to the home opener next weekend and I cannot wait.

Give Them Hell Charlie

So True Part II

I did not know this until I saw the photos, but Lloyd Carr has a striking resemblance to a certain Sponge Bob Squarepants character. Priceless.

My Fearless Prediction on Tomorrow's Game

I've seen two common themes in the individuals picking Michigan to beat the Irish tomorrow. One, Michigan is too good at home. Two, Michigan's offense is too good. I'm here to tell you that reasoning is wrong (And yes, I'm changing my preseason prediction on this game).

It is true that Notre Dame has not won in its last five appearances at the Big House and Michigan has won 16 consecutive home games. However, it should be pointed out that those five losses came from the bungling regimes of Davie and Willingham. Charlie Weis is no Davie and is no Willingham. He actually does not have his head up his ass during the game. The last Notre Dame coach who did not have his head up his ass during the game, Lou Holtz, went 3-1 at the Big House.

While its also true that Weis doesn't have the Rocket to return kicks or Tim Brown to catch passes, Notre Dame is as good as Michigan on the offensive side of the ball. Let's take a position by position breakdown:

ND QB vs. UM QB
Advantage: Slight edge ND
While Henne had a very solid freshman campaign and will only get better, Brady gets the slight edge because of his experience and the coaching of Weis who is getting Brady to play like certain other quarterback who has the name Brady.

ND RBs vs. UM RBs
Advantage: UM
Michigan wins this match-up not only because Michael Hart had a much more productive freshman year than Darius Walker, but also because they have more depth than Notre Dame with their stud freshman back Kevin Grady.

ND WRs & TEs vs. UM WRs & TEs
Advantage: ND
Now I know what you're thinking, "Chris, I heard Michigan's receivers are really talented and will be one of the best receiving cores Notre Dame faces all season." I have one word to describe Michigan's WRs: Overrated. Michigan does have a really good WR in Jason Avant, but as Pittsburgh found out last week, it takes a lot more than one good WR to beat the top notch teams. For all the talk about Steve Breaston, he has accomplished very little as a receiver. He's certainly a really good kick and punt returner, but his receiving production leaves a bit to be desired. Last season he averaged 8.6 yards a catch; pretty pathetic for a guy with his speed, and last week, against the vaunted Northern Illinois pass defense, he caught two passes for 15 yards. Furthermore, Michigan's very solid tight end, Tim Massaquoi, is probably going to miss the game. Notre Dame wins this match-up because of their depth. Brady has five very solid targets to throw to in Rhema McKnight, Anthony Fasano, Matt Shelton (assuming he's healthy), and the emerging Jeff Samardzija and Maurice Stovall. Michigan has yet to prove that it has a viable option outside of Jason Avant.

ND OL vs. UM OL
Advantage: Slight Edge UM
Michigan gets the slight edge because they are returning four starters and have proven year in and year out to have one of the best offensive lines in the country. However, if Notre Dame's offensive line continues to play like it did last week, this match-up draws even.

So if these two teams are fairly even offensively what will be the key for Notre Dame or Michigan to win? Running the football effectively and controlling the clock. It sounds obvious and cliche, but it's true. In the last six meetings between these two teams, the team that has rushed for the most yards has won the game. Notre Dame will win the rushing battle tomorrow because their rushing defense is better than Michigan's. While Pittsburgh is no Michigan in terms of running the football, Notre Dame held Pittsburgh to 103 yards rushing whereas Michigan let an average Northern Illinois team run for 211 yards. Lloyd Carr can talk all he wants about personnel changes and the Michigan defensive players can talk all they want about how they're going to be fired up to stop the run, it does not change the fact that Michigan has had a problem stopping the run dating back to last season. Expect more of the same tomorrow, but Michigan's offense will keep this game close to the end. Notre Dame 38 Michigan 35

Plenty of Blame to Go Around

Congress might want to look at itself in the mirror before they slam President Bush for providing inadequate funds to prevent New Orleans from flooding, according to this Washington Post article:

Before Hurricane Katrina breached a levee on the New Orleans Industrial Canal, the Army Corps of Engineers had already launched a $748 million construction project at that very location. But the project had nothing to do with flood control. The Corps was building a huge new lock for the canal, an effort to accommodate steadily increasing barge traffic.

Except that barge traffic on the canal has been steadily decreasing.

In Katrina's wake, Louisiana politicians and other critics have complained about paltry funding for the Army Corps in general and Louisiana projects in particular. But over the five years of President Bush's administration, Louisiana has received far more money for Corps civil works projects than any other state, about $1.9 billion; California was a distant second with less than $1.4 billion, even though its population is more than seven times as large.

Much of that Louisiana money was spent to try to keep low-lying New Orleans dry. But hundreds of millions of dollars have gone to unrelated water projects demanded by the state's congressional delegation and approved by the Corps, often after economic analyses that turned out to be inaccurate. Despite a series of independent investigations criticizing Army Corps construction projects as wasteful pork-barrel spending, Louisiana's representatives have kept bringing home the bacon.

This is why I loathe the blame game being played by both federal and state government officials right now because when we look back at this mess a few years down line, we're going to find what has happened in New Orleans was not just the fault of FEMA or President Bush or Mayor Nagin, but rather a combined incompetence by both state and federal government officials at all levels of power and of both party affiliations.

I Hope He's Right

The Sports Guy has picked the Bears to be this year's surprise team in the NFL.

Dumb Dumb Dumb

I'm going to take a quick break from Notre Dame related topics and touch on one of the dumbest things I've heard so far from a public figure about the hurricane devastation down in the Gulf. This brain-dead comment is courtesy of former first lady Barbara Bush, who said the following on NPR on Monday:

"Almost everyone I've talked to says we're going to move to Houston. What I'm hearing which is sort of scary is they all want to stay in Texas. Everyone is so overwhelmed by the hospitality. And so many of the people in the arena here, you know, were underprivileged anyway, so this--this is working very well for them."

Yes, I'm sure all the poor people in New Orleans and Mississippi who lost their homes to Hurricane Katrina were just praying beforehand to have their home destroyed just so they could get some nice free stuff from the government. Yeah, they might not know what happened to some of their family members and some of their family members might even die from the hurricane, but hey how can you not hope and pray for free stuff. Think before you speak. It does wonders.

So True

Good News

C.J.'s Pub, a South Bend institution, known for their large, juicy, and delicious burgers and cold beer will be reopening their doors on September 13, nine months after an old apartment building fell on C.J.'s. The reopening could not have happened at a better time, as its just in time for the Notre Dame season opener against Michigan State on September 17. I'll be sure to check out the new digs and have me a quality burger when I'm there for the game.

Number 13

Notre Dame got some more good news on Sunday, as they got their 13th verbal commitment in Indiana placekicker Ryan Burkhart. With the impending graduation of D.J. Fitzpatrick, it was imperative for the Irish to get a replacement kicker for next season. They got a good one in Burkhart. Recruiting analyst Tom Lemming ranks him as one of the top ten kickers in the nation and the top kicker in the Midwest. Burkhart is 4 of 5 on field goals so far this year with his only miss coming from 52 yards. Burkhart has also had 11 touchbacks on 13 of his kickoffs, so he has a strong leg. I also like how Burkhart is from a cold weather state, so he's used to kicking in crappy weather. This might be sounding like a broken record by now, but it's another excellent pick-up by Charlie Weis.

What a Game!

It's been almost 24 hours since Notre Dame finished its beat down of Pitt and I'm still grinning. This game exceeded all my expectations. I figured the Irish would be improved, but this improved? Just unbelievable. There were several positive developments from this game that has me rethinking my earlier prediction that we'll lose to Michigan.

• The push of the offensive line. The offensive line just manhandled Pitt the entire game and when Rashon Powers-Neal is running 10 yards before he's touched, you know the offensive line is doing a good job opening holes.
• The improvement of Brady Quinn. Other than the interception in the first quarter, Quinn was outstanding, not only making good decisions, but being accurate with his passes, something that he did not do consistently last season.
• The tenacity of the defense. I'm still not convinced that this defense is going to be able to consistently contain a good passing attack and they did give up one big pass play to Greg Lee. However, whenever Pitt did complete a pass or hand the ball off, the Irish defenders were hitting the ball carrier or the receiver hard. It was good to see the defense have a little swagger last night.
• The execution of the offense. I cannot remember a time when Notre Dame executed as well as they did offensively for the first three quarters. That was USC-esque.
• The team effort. This win was a total team effort. This was no more evident than on Notre Dame's first touchdown where Darius Walker had a convoy of six or so players clearing his path to the endzone. Not to mention, you do not score a touchdown on six of your first seven possessions as effortless as the Irish did without the offensive unit working together as one. There was also a number of gang tackles on the defensive side of the ball. There is no question Weis is a big reason why the Irish are playing more like a team this season.
• The playcalling of Charlie Weis. Weis was just masterful with his playing calling. I saw that familiar befuddled look on Wannstedt's face in the third quarter. I expect Lloyd Carr to have a similar facial expression next Saturday.

The only glaring negative from the game was the ten penalties they committed, but it was the first game and based on Weis' presser today, that will be corrected for next Saturday. Man, I cannot remember the last time I was this jacked up about Notre Dame football. Bring on the Wolverines!

Keys to the ND-Pitt Game and a Prediction

We are a little less than 24 hours from kickoff of the Notre Dame season opener. While much has been made about the X's and O's ability of Charlie Weis and Dave Wannstedt, this game ultimately comes down to the players on the field. There are 3 keys for the Irish if they want to leave Pittsburgh victorious.

One, they need to be able to run the football. The Pitt Panthers have a very good middle linebacker in H.B. Blades, but not much else in the front seven. Their two defensive tackles, Thomas Smith and Corey Davis are big question marks. Smith has been battling a knee injury in fall practice and Davis will be making his college football debut. The Panthers also have two new defensive ends in Joe Clermond and Chris McKillop, both of whom saw limited action last season. Notre Dame's offensive line must be able to open holes for Darius Walker not only to keep Tyler Palko and Greg Lee off the field, but also to avoid playing into the strength of the Pitt defense, their secondary, as they have 3 returning players and one of the better cornerback combos in the country.

Two, they need to be able to stop the run. With new offensive coordinator Matt Cavanaugh, there will be an increased emphasis by Pitt to run a more conservative, ball-control offense. In fact, I would be surprised if Palko throws more than 30 times tomorrow. That means that the the defensive line must control the line of scrimmage and the linebackers must fill the gaps in order to stop 235 lbs running back and true freshman Rashard Jennings from getting going and running over defenders. If the Irish cannot slow down Jennings, not only will Pitt be able to control the clock, but the Irish will be forced to bring a safety into the box to slow down the running game, which will likely leave Lee one on one versus Ambrose Wooden or Mike Richardson. In a word, yikes.

Three, they need to win the turnover battle. If you take a look at the top teams not only in the college football, but also the NFL, they all have one common characteristic and that is they force more turnovers than they give up. Turnovers will loom especially large in this game with both teams fairly even in talent.

So what's going to happen tomorrow? I expect Darius Walker to have a huge day, running for at least 120 yards. I also expect the Irish to control the line of scrimmage, prevent Jennings from running wild and force him to cough it up at least once. I further expect Palko and Greg Lee to keep the game close into the 4th quarter. In the end, however, it will be too much Darius Walker, and the Irish will walk away with a 27-21 victory.

Stay Classy

I generally try to avoid watching reality TV, but there's one show, Kill Reality, a reality show about reality stars from previous reality shows such as Trishelle from the Real World making a horror move, that might be better off doing a little less editing and moving the show from E! to late nights on Cinemax based this report in the tabloid Radar Online:

“The whole cast was drunk or wasted throughout the taping, and everyone was having sex with everyone else,” says the insider. “Not only were there orgies, but at one point someone relieved himself on Trishelle [Canatella, of Real World: Las Vegas and Playboy fame] in full view of the cameras—and, from what I saw, she loved it.” In another booze-fueled bacchanal, we hear Tonya Cooley, the lusty blonde of Real World: Chicago fame, begged co-stars to do lines off her genitals “because it turns her on.”

I'm sure their families must be very proud of them.